Here’s a simple, Wall Street-grade formula nobody teaches at those “Startup Hustle Incubator Ninja Bootcamp” sessions:
The fewer ifs and the more is, the higher your valuation.
Strip it down:
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If = risk. Speculation. Fantasy football.
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Is = reality. Contracts. Revenue. Facts. Stuff that exists.
Every startup pitch is basically a word-problem in anxiety management. Investors sit there counting your Ifs, while you stand on stage waving your hands like a caffeinated flight attendant insisting everything is fine.
“If customers sign…”
“If we hire a sales VP…”
“If we close the seed round…”
“If we get FDA approval…”
“If my cofounder stops being a crypto day-trader…”
Investors hear “if” and they translate it instantly to discount.
The If Discount
Here’s how pros think:
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1–2 ifs: Okay, life has variables.
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3–5 ifs: Bring out the brown pants.
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6+ ifs: My Uber is here, nice knowing you.
Investors don’t invest in If Reality. They invest in Is Reality.
Examples
Is: We have 7 paying customers.
Is: Our churn is 3%.
Is: We’ve got a signed LOI from Cleveland Clinic.
Is: The product works outside of PowerPoint.
Those earn real multiples. Those make people lean forward, pry open checkbooks, and whisper, “We’ll lead.”
Here’s What Founders Don’t Get
You think passion closes deals.
Nope. Proof closes deals. Passion just keeps you caffeinated long enough to get proof.
“Disruptive vision,” “category defining,” “AI-enabled,” whatever — everyone has that. The only real currency in the room is risk reduction. Every If you remove is a bullet pulled out of the investor’s revolver.
You want a higher valuation? Delete Ifs like you’re scrubbing your browser history before your spouse gets home.
Practical Advice (You won’t like it)
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Turn “If we recruit a sales leader” into “Our CRO starts Jan 15 with a 12-month comp plan.”
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Turn “If we can get early adopters” into “We signed two pilots and one renewal.”
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Turn “If the tech scales” into “Here’s our AWS invoice, here’s our latency graph, and here’s the CTO’s ulcer.”
The Harsh Truth
Founders want to be believed.
Investors want to be protected.
Big difference.
Your “ifs” are your emotional security blanket. Investors hear them as liability clauses.
Quick Test
Take your deck. Go slide by slide.
Count the Ifs. Also count the cheap weasel cousins: “should,” “could,” “would,” “plan to,” “aim to,” “expect,” “projected.”
Now count your Is statements: actual things happening in this solar system, not your future metaverse of unicorn farts.
If your If-to-Is ratio is above 3:1, your valuation is fantasy cosplay.
If your deck is mostly Is statements, congratulations — you’ve entered the rarest category in fundraising:
A grown-up.
Closing Thought
Investors aren’t complicated. They’re just allergic to founders who promise everything if the universe behaves.
They pay premiums for founders who deliver something as it is today, then quietly make tomorrow better.
Less If, more Is.
That should be on a T-shirt. But don’t launch a merch startup.
It would work… if…
